July 1st, 2021 |
These remarks were originally given on June 27, 2021 at the Space Renaissance 2021 Symposium for Space Development.
It is my sincere belief that we must give up our incremental approach to space policy.
By incremental, I mean that our national and international space policies tend to be reactive, and relatively limited in scope. Certainly, in dealing with many space commerce and scientific interests, policy does need to be able to react and address near term issues. However, when it comes to the development of space to support human presence and resource utilization, our policies should not be incremental, and in fact should be much more expansive.
Here’s why. Current policy in the U.S. and elsewhere views the human space program in much the same way it does science programs. It adheres to the scientific method in essence. The process that is very much about incremental gains, where each new experiment builds on the knowledge gained from the previous experiment. A scientist is foolish if he or she is too attached to a desired outcome from their research, so the process must be incremental.
The human space program, however, is more like a housing project. Yet when it comes to expanding human presence in space, our programs focus on incremental advancements. From a government policy perspective, there is no articulated plan for long-term human habitation of space.
Take NASA’s Artemis lunar program, for example. Its vision extends to creating a base camp with a single habitat module and rover, where astronauts may visit once a year for a few weeks. Okay, that’s cool. But, what comes next? The plans state a desire for sustained lunar operations, but there is no clarity on what that means. And then it’s onto Mars with humans to explore for a while. Then what? The Mars mission is even more vague.
This is what I mean by incremental policy. Let’s do a little and see what we find out, and then do a little bit more…maybe.
I don’t understand why space industry stakeholders are so timid about embracing the obvious? That Humankind will one day migrate beyond this planet and populate the solar system. There are some who understand, of course. Bezos, Musk, Tory Bruno among others, but still not enough.
The European Space Agency’s proposed Moon Village and the joint China-Russian International Lunar Research Station, are interesting projects as well. But these also follow the same incremental approach. I will give the UAE credit, however, for at least for codifying their stated intention to establish a Mars settlement by 2117.
Logically, the development of the Moon and Mars can only happen incrementally. There is no other way. but the policies that enable and guide these steps don’t have to be incremental, and shouldn’t be.
Our space policy must be bold enough to set a course to last 100 years, with space development and human migration goals that can inspire not just this generation, but multiple generations into the future.
In essence what we need are city planners for the Moon, Mars and free space cities.
A good historic example is the creation of Washington, DC. In 1790, U.S. Congress passed the Residence Act which approved the creation of a national capital on the Potomac River. Maryland and Virginia donated 100 square miles for the new city.
George Washington with the help of Pierre L’Enfant created a vision and plan for a magnificent city where none existed. It took over a hundred years for that plan to become fully realized.
Why couldn’t we do the same for a space city. Let’s be bold like Pierre L’Enfant. Let’s survey a 100 square mile section at the lunar south pole, and design a street plan of sorts for a lunar city to support 10,000 people. A current day Pierre L’Enfant could draft such a city plan, define real estate lots, infrastructure elements, account for power, water, and common life support requirements.
Yes, there are many questions of how such a plan would conform to international outer space treaties and laws. But if there is a will to do so, we will find a way to work within these legal parameters.
And, the question of how do we pay for it. Well that an important question, and one that the Beyond Earth Institute is researching even as we speak. In fact, my next talk in on this track will address the challenge of financing such large-scale space projects.
But, let’s be clear, like Washington DC, our lunar city would not emerge fully formed overnight. It will be a hundred-year project. Government and private stakeholders can join together and begin to install the foundational elements incrementally. You see once we have the master plan, we then have a basis on which to logically justify the incremental steps necessary to fulfill the plan.
I am sure that some listening to this may say that we just don’t know enough to begin to plan such a lunar city. L’Enfant wasn’t certain either how the capital city would be realized. But we know more than enough to get started, and we’ll find the solutions to challenges as we go.
So, let us create ambitious policies to enable the development of human communities in space. Policies to plan it out in great detail and then we can live into that plan over the coming decades, and into the next century.
This is the purpose of my organization, the Beyond Earth Institute. We are working to create the policy and legal framework that will enable economically vibrant communities beyond Earth.
